New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jose TrevinoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cody PoteetPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-5, 2 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching6.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Perez walked, Witt Jr. scored on Kahnle wild pitch, Pasquantino to second.11–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 411–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 311–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 211–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging11–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 111–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–4
- 7Pasquantino singled to right, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to third.11–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 211–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 111–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–3
- 7Witt Jr. singled to center, Isbel scored, Garcia to second.11–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–3
- 7Torres homered to left (415 feet), Soto scored and Verdugo scored.11–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 6Velázquez hit sacrifice fly to right, Witt Jr. scored.8–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–1
- 6Witt Jr. doubled to left, Isbel scored.8–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 5Stanton homered to left center (449 feet), Soto scored.8–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 1Trevino homered to left (409 feet), Verdugo scored and Torres scored.6–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Rizzo hit sacrifice fly to center, Judge scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML NYY -175 / KC +145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -156
- KC +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.7 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −7 | NYY: Cody Poteet: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · KC: Dan Altavilla (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +50 Elo | NYY 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | +1.06th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 3026–11 | Road vs home | 24–137th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–27 | 41–26 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–22 | 14–13 |
| Underdog | 17–5 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 33–35–1 | 30–36–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–2 KC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.