New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fermin homered to left (370 feet).10–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–0
- 7Stanton homered to center (446 feet).10–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–0
- 7Judge homered to center (436 feet), Soto scored.9–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–0
- 6Cabrera singled to center, Torres scored on error, Cabrera safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Isbel, Wells safe at third on error.7–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 4Wells homered to center (417 feet), Stanton scored and Torres scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Torres singled to left, Verdugo scored, Stanton to third.3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Stanton grounded into fielder's choice to third, Soto scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Judge singled to right, Volpe scored, Soto to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML NYY -135 / KC +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.0 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +38 Elo | NYY 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 1st of 3025–11 | Road vs home | 24–124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–27 | 41–25 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–22 | 14–13 |
| Underdog | 17–5 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–35–1 | 29–36–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 5–2 KC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.