Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Cody PoteetPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 11Judge singled to left, Volpe scored.2–1
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 11T. Hernández doubled to left, Freeman scored and Ohtani scored.2–0
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 59%
- ML LAD -155 / NYY +135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 48.3%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- LAD -143
- NYY +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.6 – 3.9 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Cody Poteet: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +12 Elo | NYY 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 3017–13 | Road vs home | 21–82nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–31 | 38–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 32–27 | 24–21 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 31–32–1 | 30–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 1–2 NYY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.