Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cruz homered to right center (462 feet), McCutchen scored and Reynolds scored.11–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 211–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 111–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–4
- 6Rojas doubled to left, T. Hernández scored, Pages to third.11–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–4
- 5Betts homered to center (410 feet), Vargas scored and Barnes scored.10–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 5E. Hernández scored on throwing error by catcher Davis, Vargas stole second.7–4
- 5E. Hernández scored on throwing error by catcher Davis, Vargas stole second.7–4
- 5E. Hernández doubled to center, Pages scored, Rojas to third.6–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul5–4
- 5T. Hernández homered to right center (390 feet).5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 3N. Gonzales homered to left (366 feet), Cruz scored.4–4
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Olivares hit sacrifice fly to right, Hayes scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2Suwinski singled to left, Olivares scored, Davis to second.4–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Rojas singled to left, T. Hernández scored.4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML LAD -185 / PIT +155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -166
- PIT +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | 0 | LAD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +61 Elo | LAD 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 7th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 14–1519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–31 | 30–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 31–27 | 8–17 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 22–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–32–1 | 33–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–5 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.