Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting2-3, 4 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lux singled to center, Heyward scored.6–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–10
- 7N. Gonzales singled to left, Olivares scored, Hayes to second.5–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–10
- 7Hayes singled to right, Joe scored, Olivares to third.5–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–9
- 7Smith singled to right, Freeman scored.5–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–8
- 6Heyward scored.4–8
- 6Heyward scored.4–8
- 5N. Gonzales hit sacrifice fly to right, Olivares scored, Hayes to third.3–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 5Pages homered to left center (392 feet).3–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 3Ohtani homered to center (415 feet), Betts scored.2–7
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–7
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–7
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–7
- 2Reynolds scored, Olivares to third on passed ball by Smith.0–7
- 2Reynolds scored, Olivares to third on passed ball by Smith.0–7
- 2Olivares singled to right, McCutchen scored, Reynolds to third.0–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML LAD +100 / PIT -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 41.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- LAD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −2 | LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +60 Elo | LAD 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 6th of 3016–12 | Road vs home | 13–1520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–30 | 29–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–27 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 22–12 |
| Overs–unders | 29–32–1 | 32–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–4 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.