Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 3Suwinski homered to right (375 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -195 / PIT +165
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.6%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- LAD -175
- PIT +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 3.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −3 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +75 Elo | LAD 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 3016–11 | Road vs home | 12–1523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–29 | 28–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–26 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 29–31–1 | 32–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–3 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.