Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-3, 5 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Correa grounded out to second, Farmer scored.5–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–9
- 7Buxton grounded out to third, Miranda scored.4–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 7Lewis homered to left (373 feet).3–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–9
- 6Judge walked, Wells scored, Soto to second, LeMahieu to third.2–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 42–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–8
- 6Correa hit sacrifice fly to center, Farmer scored, Margot to third.2–8
- 6Pitch 10 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 6Santana homered to right (368 feet).1–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 5Verdugo hit sacrifice fly to left, Judge scored.0–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML MIN +150 / NYY -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.2%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -159
- MIN +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 4.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +51 Elo | NYY 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.11st of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 8th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 19–83rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–32 | 36–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–22 | 22–21 |
| Underdog | 14–10 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 25–35 | 28–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–7 NYY in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.