Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Grisham hit sacrifice fly to right, Wells scored.5–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 5Santana singled to right, Kepler scored, Miranda to second.5–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 5Kepler hit a ground rule double, Kirilloff scored.4–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Correa hit sacrifice fly to right, Larnach scored, Kirilloff to third.3–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 4Stanton reached on infield single to second, Judge scored.2–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–6
- 4Volpe scored on throwing error by catcher Vázquez, Judge stole third.2–6
- 4Volpe scored on throwing error by catcher Vázquez, Judge stole third.2–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 3Wells hit sacrifice fly to center, Stanton scored.2–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Torres doubled to right, Soto scored and Judge scored, Stanton to third.2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Vázquez homered to left center (404 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Grisham homered to right center (384 feet), Wells scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Correa homered to right center (383 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML MIN +130 / NYY -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.1%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -138
- MIN +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +4 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +57 Elo | NYY 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.11st of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 9th of 3017–15 | Road vs home | 20–83rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–33 | 37–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–22 | 23–21 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 26–35 | 29–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–8 NYY in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.