Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Judge homered to right center (379 feet).11–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–3
- 9Pages walked, Freeman scored, T. Hernández to second, Smith to third.11–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 411–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 311–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 211–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–2
- 9Freeman doubled to left, Ohtani scored and Betts scored.10–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 8T. Hernández homered to center (424 feet), Betts scored, Ohtani scored and Smith scored.8–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 6T. Hernández grounded into fielder's choice to third, Freeman scored, Smith out at second.4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5E. Hernández homered to right (346 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Judge homered to left center (386 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Ohtani singled to left, E. Hernández scored, Taylor to second.2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Wells grounded into fielder's choice to second, Torres scored, LeMahieu out at second.1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML LAD +100 / NYY -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -109
- LAD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.2 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −6 | LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +5 Elo | NYY 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 21–94th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–32 | 39–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 32–28 | 24–21 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 15–5 |
| Overs–unders | 31–33–1 | 30–34–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 2–2 NYY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.