New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jose TrevinoBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Witt Jr. doubled to left, Blanco scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Fermin singled to center, Perez scored, Loftin to second.4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 4Trevino singled to center, LeMahieu scored and Grisham scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 1LeMahieu sacrificed to pitcher, Torres scored, Verdugo to second.2–0
- 1Verdugo singled to left, Soto scored, Torres to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 51%
- ML NYY -115 / KC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 52.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +11 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +20 Elo | NYY 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3024–11 | Road vs home | 24–114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–27 | 41–24 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–22 | 14–12 |
| Underdog | 16–5 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–34–1 | 29–35–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 4–2 KC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.