Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 12 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Judge homered to left (434 feet).4–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 34–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 8Smith hit sacrifice fly to right, Ohtani scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 33–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 6Grisham homered to right (394 feet), Verdugo scored and Judge scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6T. Hernández homered to left center (414 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Betts doubled to left, Lux scored and Pages scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Judge doubled to center, Verdugo scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Cabrera homered to right (356 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML LAD -135 / NYY +115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 48.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- NYY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.0 – 3.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +12 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +9 Elo | NYY 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +1.72nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–13 | Road vs home | 21–104th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–32 | 39–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 32–28 | 24–22 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 15–5 |
| Overs–unders | 32–33–1 | 31–34–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 3–2 NYY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.