Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Ryan BlissBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Velázquez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Witt Jr. scored, Perez out at second, Pasquantino to third.9–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging9–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging9–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–9
- 9Witt Jr. tripled to left, Hampson scored.9–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–8
- 9Garcia grounded out to shortstop, Loftin scored.9–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 29–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 19–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–7
- 6Renfroe singled to center, Perez scored and Velázquez scored.9–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 6Melendez grounded out to first, Pasquantino scored, Velázquez to second, Perez to third.9–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–5
- 6Garver doubled to left, Moore scored, France to third.9–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 28–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 18–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–4
- 4Melendez homered to right (406 feet), Pasquantino scored and Velázquez scored.8–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 4Velázquez reached on infield single to third, Witt Jr. scored, Pasquantino to third.8–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 4France hit a ground rule double, Crawford scored, Rodríguez to third.8–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 1Bliss homered to left center (421 feet), Robles scored.7–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML SEA -120 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 51.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −9 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +10 Elo | SEA 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 17th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 22–104th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–34 | 39–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–22 | 14–12 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 25–12 |
| Overs–unders | 23–39–2 | 27–35–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 8–2 KC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.