Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Josh RojasBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Athletics- Abraham ToroBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schuemann scored on Muñoz wild pitch, Cameron to second on wild pitch by Muñoz.4–3
- 9Schuemann scored on Muñoz wild pitch, Cameron to second on wild pitch by Muñoz.4–3
- 6Langeliers grounded out to shortstop, Bleday scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Rojas reached on infield single to shortstop, Moore scored, Rojas safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Schuemann.4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Toro singled to left, Gelof scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Raley doubled to right, France scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3France doubled to center, Crawford scored and Rojas scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML SEA -155 / OAK +135
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.9%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -143
- OAK +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 3.4 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +11 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +63 Elo | SEA 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 13–1623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–32 | 28–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–20 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 25–26 |
| Overs–unders | 23–36–2 | 30–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 14–2 OAK in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.