Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Triston McKenziePitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kwan scored, Ramírez scored on error and J. Naylor scored on error, Fry safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Witt Jr., Fry safe at second on error.5–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 7Freeman homered to left center (402 feet), Brennan scored.5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 4J. Naylor homered to center (419 feet), Ramírez scored.5–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4Ramírez singled to left, Kwan scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Witt Jr. homered to left center (454 feet), Garcia scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Witt Jr. homered to center (434 feet), Garcia scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Renfroe homered to right center (386 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML KC +115 / CLE -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +4 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +28 Elo | CLE 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 13th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 20–71st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–23 | 36–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–12 | 17–18 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 19–5 |
| Overs–unders | 26–34–1 | 30–27–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 6–7 CLE in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.