Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rodríguez homered to center (402 feet).1–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 5Cameron scored.0–2
- 5Cameron scored.0–2
- 3Gelof homered to center (399 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML SEA -170 / OAK +145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 62.1%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- SEA -154
- OAK +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.7 – 3.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −9 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +86 Elo | SEA 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 18th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 13–1724th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–33 | 29–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–21 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 26–26 |
| Overs–unders | 23–37–2 | 30–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 15–2 OAK in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 17.