Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Isbel singled to right, Frazier scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Isbel grounded into fielder's choice to first, Melendez scored, Renfroe third.3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Renfroe doubled to left, Fermin scored, Melendez to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Ramírez reached on infield single to second, Kwan scored, Giménez to second.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Ramírez homered to right (422 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1J. Naylor grounded out to shortstop, Kwan scored, Ramírez to second, Giménez to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pasquantino doubled to right, Garcia scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 61%
- ML KC +145 / CLE -170
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 59.2%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -154
- KC +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +16 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +64 Elo | CLE 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.11st of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 21–71st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–24 | 37–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–12 | 18–18 |
| Underdog | 24–12 | 19–5 |
| Overs–unders | 27–34–1 | 31–27–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 6–8 CLE in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.