Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Royals- Adam FrazierBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Isbel hit sacrifice fly to center, Blanco scored, Loftin to second.4–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–8
- 6Isbel doubled to left, Loftin scored and Velázquez scored.4–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 6Moore hit sacrifice fly to right, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to third.4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 5Pasquantino doubled to right, Garcia scored and Loftin scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Loftin singled to right, Frazier scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Crawford singled to center, Canzone scored, Bliss to third.3–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Garver homered to left (397 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Frazier homered to right (364 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Perez singled to left, Garcia scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML SEA -140 / KC +120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -128
- KC +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −10 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +26 Elo | SEA 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 23–104th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–35 | 40–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 14–12 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 26–12 |
| Overs–unders | 24–39–2 | 28–35–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 8–3 KC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.