Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Royals- Hunter RenfroeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Renfroe homered to left center (391 feet), Fermin scored.6–5
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 36–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 10Raleigh singled to right, Moore scored and Rodríguez scored, Garver to third.6–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 10Rodríguez singled to right, Rojas scored, Moore to second.4–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 9Melendez homered to right (431 feet), Loftin scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Rojas singled to right, Locklear scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 7Locklear doubled to right, Haniger scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Isbel sacrificed to first, Fermin scored, Renfroe to second.1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Crawford homered to right center (429 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 50%
- Fair odds
- KC -110
- SEA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.8 – 5.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +1 Elo | SEA 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 24–103rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–36 | 41–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–24 | 14–12 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 25–39–2 | 29–35–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 8–4 KC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.