Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bohm doubled to center, Harper scored.3–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 5Westburg homered to right center (377 feet), O'Hearn scored and Santander scored.2–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Santander singled to right, Mountcastle scored, O'Hearn to second.2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Bohm singled to center, Schwarber scored, Harper to third.2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Castellanos grounded out to shortstop, Stubbs scored, Schwarber to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 3Rutschman homered to center (412 feet).0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Cowser homered to center (443 feet), Westburg scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Henderson homered to center (419 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 56%
- ML PHI +115 / BAL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 52.6%, market 55.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -125
- PHI +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.5 – 4.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +8 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +18 Elo | BAL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.11st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.52nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3019–13 | Road vs home | 24–148th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–32 | 42–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 31–26 | 31–26 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 30–39–1 | 37–31–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–2 BAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.