Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- David HamiltonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bohm hit sacrifice fly to right, Harper scored.6–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 7Stott doubled to right, Castellanos scored.5–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 6Hamilton homered to right center (399 feet), Dalbec scored.4–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 5Valdez doubled to center, Refsnyder scored and Wong scored, Valdez thrown out at third.4–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5O'Neill hit sacrifice fly to left, Duran scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Duran reached on infield single to second, Hamilton scored on error and Rafaela scored on throwing error by second baseman Merrifield, Duran to second.4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Westbrook hit sacrifice fly to right, Devers scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Dahl doubled to left, Stott scored, Merrifield to third.4–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Merrifield singled to right, Bohm scored, Stott to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Stott grounded into fielder's choice to second, Castellanos scored, Harper out at second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PHI -135 / BOS +115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 4.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +14 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +38 Elo | PHI 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3018–10 | Road vs home | 14–1926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–29 | 29–38 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–25 | 11–24 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 27–38–1 | 28–37–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–10 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–2 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.