Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mets- Starling MarteBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Castellanos homered to left.7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Martinez grounded out to third, Lindor scored and Lindor scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 4Schwarber singled to center, Pache scored.6–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 15–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 4Merrifield homered to left, Stott scored and Sosa scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Sosa singled to right, Bohm scored, Stott to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Harper homered to right.1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Marte doubled to left, Lindor scored, Martinez to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML PHI -170 / NYM +145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 64.2%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -154
- NYM +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −4 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +101 Elo | PHI 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–28 | 25–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–24 | 9–20 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders | 27–35–1 | 33–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 10–7 NYM in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.