Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- David HamiltonBatting2-4
- Kutter CrawfordPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Schwarber homered to right center (427 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Harper scored on error and Stott scored on error, Dahl safe at first on error by first baseman Smith.3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Refsnyder hit sacrifice fly to right, Duran scored, Hamilton to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Schwarber homered to right center (444 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML PHI -165 / BOS +135
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.0%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -146
- BOS +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −18 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +77 Elo | PHI 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3017–10 | Road vs home | 14–1824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–29 | 29–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–25 | 11–24 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 27–37–1 | 28–36–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–10 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.