Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- David HamiltonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack KellyPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Paul DeJongBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Refsnyder singled to center, Duran scored.6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 10Westbrook hit sacrifice fly to right, Rafaela scored, Duran to third.5–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 14–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 9McGuire hit sacrifice fly to left, Hamilton scored.4–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Sheets singled to left, Ellis scored, Robert Jr. to second.3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 6Cooper grounded out to third, Duran scored, Refsnyder to third.3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 5Hamilton homered to right (361 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4DeJong homered to left (363 feet), Sheets scored and Vaughn scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Refsnyder grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Duran scored, Valdez out at second.1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML BOS -145 / CHW +125
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 61.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -133
- CHW +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.1 – 4.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −17 | BOS: Zack Kelly (no track record yet) · CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +78 Elo | BOS 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 63.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −2.230th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 7th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 12–2228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–37 | 30–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–24 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 18–13 | 26–35 |
| Overs–unders | 27–36–2 | 31–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–6 CHW in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.