Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Bobby DalbecBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nick NastriniPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7DeJong homered to left center (401 feet).1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 5Sheets homered to right (399 feet), Julks scored, DeLoach scored and Vaughn scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Vaughn reached on infield single to second, Mendick scored, DeLoach to second, Julks to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Dalbec homered to right (360 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 67%
- ML BOS -230 / CHW +195
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.0%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -206
- CHW +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.0 – 3.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −9 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Nick Nastrini: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +70 Elo | BOS 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.329th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −2.330th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 6th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 11–2229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–36 | 29–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–23 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 18–13 | 25–35 |
| Overs–unders | 27–35–2 | 31–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–5 CHW in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.