Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting2-4
- Cooper CriswellPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8DeJong doubled to left, Sheets scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 6Vaughn homered to center (402 feet).2–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 6Sheets homered to right (377 feet).2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Colás singled to center, Vaughn scored and DeJong scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4DeJong singled to left, Sheets scored, DeJong to second, Vaughn to second, Vaughn safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Duran.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Duran stole home.2–1
- 3Duran stole home.2–1
- 3Dalbec scored on error, Duran safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Crochet, Duran safe at third on error.1–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Robert Jr. homered to center (430 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 51%
- ML BOS -105 / CHW -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- CHW: Elo 42.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHW -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +22 | BOS: Cooper Criswell: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 1.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +56 Elo | BOS 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −2.430th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 4th of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 10–2230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–35 | 28–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–23 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 25–35 |
| Overs–unders | 26–35–2 | 30–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–4 CHW in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.