Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake WoodfordPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith grounded out to shortstop, Refsnyder scored, Dalbec to third.14–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play14–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking13–2
- 7Vaughn homered to left (393 feet).13–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 113–1
- 7Rafaela singled to left, Wong scored, Hamilton to second.13–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging12–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 112–1
- 7Westbrook homered to left center (388 feet).12–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–1
- 6DeLoach doubled to left, Sosa scored.11–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–0
- 6Duran hit sacrifice fly to center, Wong scored.11–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking10–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 310–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 210–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 110–0
- 6Rafaela singled to left, Smith scored, Wong to third.10–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 19–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–0
- 6Wong singled to center, O'Neill scored, Smith to second.9–0
- 6Pitch 11 : Ball In Play9–0
- 6Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 28–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 69%
- ML BOS -250 / CHW +210
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 63.0%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -221
- CHW +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.1 – 3.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −13 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Jake Woodford: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +93 Elo | BOS 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −2.330th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 5th of 3017–13 | Road vs home | 10–2129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–35 | 28–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–23 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 25–34 |
| Overs–unders | 25–35–2 | 29–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–4 CHW in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.