New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- J.D. MartinezBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Phillies- David DahlBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bohm walked, Pache scored, Harper to second, Stubbs to third.6–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 46–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 36–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 9Iglesias scored, Alonso to second on passed ball by Realmuto, Torrens to third on passed ball by Realmuto.6–4
- 9Iglesias scored, Alonso to second on passed ball by Realmuto, Torrens to third on passed ball by Realmuto.6–4
- 9Alonso hit by pitch, McNeil scored, Torrens to second, Iglesias to third.5–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 9Vientos reached on infield single to third, Taylor scored, McNeil to second.4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Dahl homered to right center.3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 6Martinez singled to left, Alonso scored and Nimmo scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Nimmo doubled to left, Torrens scored, Alonso to third.1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Merrifield singled to right, Sosa scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 4Sosa doubled to center, Castellanos scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Bohm grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Schwarber scored, Harper out at second, Realmuto to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML NYM +125 / PHI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -133
- NYM +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.4 – 6.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −17 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +67 Elo | PHI 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–37 | 36–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–20 | 30–24 |
| Underdog | 16–17 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 33–29 | 27–36–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 7–11 PHI in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.