Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching3.2 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Valdez doubled to center, Devers scored, Valdez out stretching at third.3–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 4O'Neill homered to left center (430 feet), Duran scored and Hamilton scored.3–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 4Hamilton singled to left, Smith scored, Duran to third.3–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Schwarber doubled to center, Rojas scored, Sosa scored and Merrifield scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Duran doubled to right, Rafaela scored and Smith scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Smith singled to center, McGuire scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2McGuire doubled to right, Valdez scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML PHI -115 / BOS -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 4.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +9 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +49 Elo | PHI 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3018–11 | Road vs home | 15–1924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–30 | 30–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–26 | 11–24 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–38–1 | 29–37–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–3 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.