Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-2, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Henderson singled to center, Hays scored, Urías to second.2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 8Santander homered to right (425 feet), Mateo scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Santander hit sacrifice fly to center, Mountcastle scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Santander homered to right center (424 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Rutschman hit sacrifice fly to right, Urías scored on error, Henderson safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Castellanos.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Sosa homered to right (370 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Bohm doubled to center, Harper scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 63%
- ML PHI +160 / BAL -195
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.0%, market 63.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -172
- PHI +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.7 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −8 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +28 Elo | BAL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 63.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3019–12 | Road vs home | 23–149th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–31 | 41–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 31–26 | 30–26 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 30–38–1 | 37–30–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–1 BAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.