New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Alex VerdugoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Enmanuel ValdezBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Verdugo singled to right, Judge scored on error, Verdugo safe at second on throwing error by right fielder O'Neill.8–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 9Judge doubled to left, Soto scored.7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 9Trevino homered to left center (392 feet).6–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Rizzo singled to right, Judge scored, Verdugo to third.5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Verdugo doubled to left, Volpe scored, Judge to third.4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Valdez doubled to center, Devers scored, Wong to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Stanton scored on error, Cabrera safe at first on error by pitcher Bello.3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Verdugo homered to center (406 feet), Soto scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML NYY -160 / BOS +135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.3%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -145
- BOS +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.2 – 4.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −12 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +58 Elo | NYY 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 1st of 3027–12 | Road vs home | 16–1922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–28 | 31–38 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–23 | 12–24 |
| Underdog | 17–5 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 34–36–1 | 30–37–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 4–9 BOS in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.