New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony RizzoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Garcia doubled to left, Isbel scored and Melendez scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 8Soto singled to right, Grisham scored, Soto thrown out at second.3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 8Volpe grounded out to third, Jones scored, Grisham to second.2–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 8Rizzo homered to right (376 feet).1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Pasquantino doubled to center, Witt Jr. scored and Garcia scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML NYY -170 / KC +145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.8%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- NYY -154
- KC +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.7 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −9 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +40 Elo | NYY 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3027–11 | Road vs home | 24–148th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–27 | 41–27 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–22 | 14–13 |
| Underdog | 17–5 | 27–14 |
| Overs–unders | 34–35–1 | 31–36–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 7–2 KC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.