New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran scored on pickoff error by catcher Trevino.4–8
- 8Duran scored on pickoff error by catcher Trevino.4–8
- 8Duran singled to center, Rafaela scored, Duran to second.4–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 8LeMahieu grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rizzo scored, Jones out at second, Torres to third.4–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 7Valdez singled to center, Yoshida scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Soto homered to center (392 feet).3–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 2Devers doubled to center, O'Neill scored and Refsnyder scored.2–5
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2LeMahieu singled to center, Stanton scored and Rizzo scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Westbrook doubled to left, Devers scored, Wong to third.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 63%
- ML NYY -190 / BOS +155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.4%, market 62.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -167
- BOS +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.8 – 3.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −3 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Cooper Criswell: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +45 Elo | NYY 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 62.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 1st of 3028–12 | Road vs home | 16–2025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–28 | 31–39 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–23 | 12–24 |
| Underdog | 17–5 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 34–37–1 | 30–38–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 5–9 BOS in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.