New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wong singled to left, Hamilton scored, Refsnyder to second.3–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 8Hamilton singled to left, Rafaela scored, Duran thrown out at home.3–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 7Wong tripled to right, Refsnyder scored and Devers scored.3–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Devers singled to center, Duran scored, Refsnyder to second.3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 6Volpe scored on Crawford wild pitch.3–4
- 6Volpe scored on Crawford wild pitch.3–4
- 6Trevino homered to left (389 feet).2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Devers hit sacrifice fly to center, Hamilton scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Devers grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Hamilton scored, Refsnyder out at second.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Rafaela singled to center, Valdez scored and Smith scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Judge homered to left center (380 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML NYY -145 / BOS +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -133
- BOS +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.1 – 4.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −15 | NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +55 Elo | NYY 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3028–13 | Road vs home | 17–2022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–29 | 32–39 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–24 | 12–24 |
| Underdog | 17–5 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders | 35–37–1 | 31–38–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 5–10 BOS in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.