Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael TonkinPitching1.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mountcastle singled to center, Mullins scored, Rutschman to second, Urías to third.17–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play17–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul17–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging17–5
- 8O'Hearn singled to right, Rutschman scored and Mountcastle scored.16–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play16–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging14–5
- 7Hays homered to left center (432 feet), Mullins scored.14–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play14–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–5
- 6Henderson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Hays scored, Urías out at second.12–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 111–5
- 5Judge singled to left, Volpe scored.11–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 311–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 211–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 111–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging11–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–4
- 5Soto grounded out to first, Cabrera scored, Volpe to third.11–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - PitchTimerViolation-Pitcher 111–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–3
- 5Santander homered to right center (371 feet), Rutschman scored and Mountcastle scored.11–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 18–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–3
- 3Judge homered to right center (395 feet), Soto scored.8–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML BAL +140 / NYY -170
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.5%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -151
- BAL +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +12 | BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +11 Elo | NYY 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | +1.61st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 3023–11 | Road vs home | 23–114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–29 | 45–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–26 | 28–26 |
| Underdog | 12–3 | 17–5 |
| Overs–unders | 39–32–2 | 37–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 11–8 NYY in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.