Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ramon UriasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rice hit sacrifice fly to right, Torres scored.7–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 10Mullins scored on throwing error by catcher Trevino.7–5
- 10Mullins scored on throwing error by catcher Trevino.7–5
- 10Mullins singled to center, Santander scored, Mullins to second.6–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 9Stanton singled to left, Volpe scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 7Stanton homered to center (440 feet), Volpe scored and Soto scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 7Mountcastle doubled to right, Henderson scored on error, Mountcastle safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Soto.5–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5O'Hearn doubled to right, Mateo scored, Mountcastle to third.4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Urías homered to left center (391 feet), Mullins scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Torres hit sacrifice fly to left, Soto scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 11 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 56%
- ML BAL +120 / NYY -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.6%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -128
- BAL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.5 – 4.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +8 | BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +25 Elo | NYY 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.02nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3022–11 | Road vs home | 23–103rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–29 | 45–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–26 | 28–25 |
| Underdog | 11–3 | 17–5 |
| Overs–unders | 38–32–2 | 36–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 10–8 NYY in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.