San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Winn singled to right, Pagés scored, Winn thrown out at second, Carlson to third.4–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Donovan homered to right (422 feet).4–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 6Burleson homered to center (416 feet), Winn scored.4–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 4Burleson homered to right center (407 feet), Carlson scored and Winn scored.4–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Conforto doubled to right, Chapman scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 1Goldschmidt homered to left center (421 feet), Burleson scored.3–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Conforto singled to center, Soler scored and Chapman scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Soler singled to center, Wisely scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML SF +100 / STL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- STL: Elo 51.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- SF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +3 | SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +12 Elo | STL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 3016–22 | Road vs home | 17–1513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–36 | 35–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–20 | 11–21 |
| Underdog | 24–16 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 41–33–1 | 31–40–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–2 STL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.