St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Roddery MunozPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bruján singled to right, Gordon scored, Anderson to third.8–9
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–9
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 28–9
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 18–9
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–9
- 10Anderson reached on infield single to third, J. Sánchez scored, Gordon to second.8–8
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–8
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 28–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 18–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–8
- 10Carlson hit sacrifice fly to right, Fermín scored.8–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–7
- 6Bell hit sacrifice fly to center, Chisholm Jr. scored.7–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–7
- 6Bethancourt homered to left (388 feet).7–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 27–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 4Bethancourt grounded out to second, Anderson scored.7–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 27–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 4Burleson homered to left center (386 feet).7–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 36–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 3Siani singled to center, Carpenter scored.6–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 3Crawford grounded out to first, Herrera scored, Carpenter to second.5–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 56%
- ML STL -140 / MIA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- STL: Elo 51.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -128
- MIA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +2 | STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Roddery Munoz: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +10 Elo | STL 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 13th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 12–2630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–36 | 27–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–19 | 1–18 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 26–27 |
| Overs–unders | 29–39–2 | 38–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 7–4 MIA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.