Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Roddery MunozPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Mets- J.D. MartinezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Martinez homered to right center (409 feet), Lindor scored.2–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 7Marte grounded into double play, third to second to first, Nimmo scored, Alonso out at second, Martinez to third.2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 7Chisholm Jr. homered to center (426 feet).2–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 6Burger homered to right (370 feet).1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 65%
- ML MIA +175 / NYM -210
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.6%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -186
- MIA +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.6 – 4.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −8 | MIA: Roddery Munoz: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +39 Elo | NYM 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 62.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 27th of 3011–19 | Road vs home | 14–2227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–42 | 27–38 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–18 | 10–21 |
| Underdog | 24–24 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders | 36–30–1 | 34–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 7–11 NYM in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.