Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Emmanuel RamirezPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chisholm Jr. singled to center, Burger scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Bell homered to left (403 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3De La Cruz homered to center (432 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Rocchio homered to left (377 feet), Hedges scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML CLE -115 / MIA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 3.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +7 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +24 Elo | CLE 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 4th of 3019–13 | Road vs home | 11–2328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–24 | 24–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–19 | 1–16 |
| Underdog | 19–5 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders | 31–28–2 | 34–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–2 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.