Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Mets- Harrison BaderBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marte singled to center, Bader scored.4–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 8Lindor homered to center (414 feet).4–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 7Alvarez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Marte scored, Vientos out at second, Taylor to third.4–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Vientos singled to right, Alonso scored, Taylor to second, Marte to third.4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Marte homered to left center (434 feet).4–6
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 34–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 5Chisholm Jr. singled to left, De La Cruz scored, Burger to second.4–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 5De La Cruz doubled to left, Lopez scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 2Martinez singled to center, McNeil scored, Lindor to third.2–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 2Vientos scored on error, McNeil safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Lopez, Alvarez safe at third on error.2–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2Alvarez singled to right, Taylor scored, Vientos to second.2–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 58%
- ML MIA +130 / NYM -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 54.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -140
- MIA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +32 Elo | NYM 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 26th of 3011–18 | Road vs home | 13–2227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–41 | 26–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–18 | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 24–23 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders | 35–30–1 | 33–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 7–10 NYM in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.