Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Tyler FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burger homered to right center (383 feet).6–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 36–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 9Ramírez singled to right, Freeman scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Freeman homered to left (388 feet), Rocchio scored and Kwan scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Fry singled to right, Ramírez scored on error, Fry safe at second on error by catcher Fortes.2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Gordon singled to center, Edwards scored on error, Gordon safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Freeman.1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Chisholm Jr. homered to center (440 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Arias homered to right center (403 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 50%
- ML CLE -110 / MIA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 43.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -100
- CLE -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −14 | CLE: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +48 Elo | CLE 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 5th of 3020–14 | Road vs home | 12–2429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–24 | 24–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–19 | 1–17 |
| Underdog | 20–5 | 23–23 |
| Overs–unders | 31–30–2 | 34–29–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–3 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.