Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-3
- Roddery MunozPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Brennan singled to right, Fry scored.8–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–0
- 5Manzardo hit sacrifice fly to center, J. Naylor scored, Fry to third.7–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 26–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 16–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 5Fry doubled to right, Ramírez scored, J. Naylor to third.6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5J. Naylor singled to left, Giménez scored, Ramírez to second.5–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5Kwan homered to right (381 feet), Schneemann scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3J. Naylor singled to right, Kwan scored, Giménez to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Ramírez homered to right center (401 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 61%
- ML CLE -170 / MIA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.4%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -154
- MIA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.7 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +5 | CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Roddery Munoz: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +38 Elo | CLE 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–14 | Road vs home | 12–2329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–24 | 24–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–19 | 1–17 |
| Underdog | 20–5 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders | 31–29–2 | 34–28–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–3 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.