Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Tim AndersonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gordon hit sacrifice fly to left, Lopez scored.4–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Burger reached on infield single to third, Chisholm Jr. scored, De La Cruz to third.3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5De La Cruz doubled to left, Anderson scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Vientos doubled to left, Marte scored and Martinez scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Anderson singled to left, J. Sánchez scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 59%
- ML MIA +135 / NYM -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.6%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- NYM -143
- MIA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +5 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +46 Elo | NYM 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 27th of 3010–18 | Road vs home | 13–2127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–41 | 26–37 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–18 | 9–20 |
| Underdog | 23–23 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders | 35–29–1 | 33–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–10 NYM in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.