St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Pedro PagesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting1-3
- Kyle HendricksPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carlson singled to left, Herrera scored, Carlson thrown out at second.3–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 9Herrera doubled to right, Arenado scored.2–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 8Pagés homered to left center (363 feet).1–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML STL +105 / CHC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.6 – 3.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +7 | STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jordan Wicks: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +50 Elo | CHC 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–624th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 18–1310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–34 | 35–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 8–20 |
| Underdog | 21–16 | 27–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–36–2 | 31–37–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 7–8 CHC in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.