Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-4
- Paul SkenesPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gorman homered to right center (411 feet).2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Cruz hit sacrifice fly to left, McCutchen scored.2–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 9Joe grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Suwinski scored, Reynolds to second, McCutchen to third.1–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML PIT -145 / STL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 47.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -133
- STL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 3.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −3 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +18 Elo | STL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 17th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 15–1413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–31 | 30–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–18 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 24–13 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 35–28 | 28–33–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 9–4 STL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.