Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Dylan CarlsonBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carlson doubled to right, Donovan scored and Herrera scored.5–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
- 8Donovan singled to center, Siani scored, Donovan to second, Herrera to third.5–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 6Carlson singled to center, Herrera scored, Donovan to third.5–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 35–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 5Trejo singled to center, McMahon scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 4Toglia tripled to right, Toglia scored on throwing error by second baseman Gorman, Trejo scored, Doyle scored and Cave scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 2Goldschmidt singled to right, Winn scored, Burleson to third.0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Gorman singled to center, Goldschmidt scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Arenado hit sacrifice fly to right, Burleson scored, Goldschmidt to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Goldschmidt reached on infield single to third, Winn scored, Burleson to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- STL 61%
- ML COL +150 / STL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- STL: Elo 56.3%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -159
- COL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −4 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +44 Elo | STL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 29th of 309–23 | Road vs home | 13–1314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–28 | 28–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 8–16 |
| Underdog | 30–26 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 33–26 | 26–32–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–3 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.