Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-5
- Sonny GrayPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Siani singled to left, Herrera scored, Carpenter to second.3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Herrera grounded into fielder's choice to first, Gorman scored on throwing error by shortstop Tovar, Donovan out at second.3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Cave scored on Gray wild pitch.3–0
- 5Cave scored on Gray wild pitch.3–0
- 5Toglia grounded out to first, Doyle scored, Cave to third.2–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Blackmon grounded into fielder's choice to second, Cave scored, Toglia out at second.1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- STL 67%
- ML COL +190 / STL -225
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- STL: Elo 57.5%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- STL -201
- COL +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +8 | COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +53 Elo | STL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 65.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 29th of 308–23 | Road vs home | 13–1213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–28 | 28–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 8–15 |
| Underdog | 29–26 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 33–25 | 26–31–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–3 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.