Minnesota Twins at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Cruz singled to center, Joe scored.11–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–5
- 10Kepler singled to left, Correa scored.11–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–4
- 10Correa singled to right, Castro scored and Santana scored, Correa to second.10–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–4
- 10Santana doubled to right, Buxton scored and Jeffers scored, Castro to third.8–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 10Castro hit by pitch, Margot scored, Jeffers to second, Buxton to third.6–4
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 10Margot tripled to center, Farmer scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Lewis hit sacrifice fly to left, Jeffers scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Joe tripled to center, McCutchen scored and Reynolds scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Reynolds doubled to right, Davis scored, McCutchen to third.3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Triolo singled to left, Tellez scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Kepler scored, Kirilloff to third on passed ball by Davis.3–0
- 1Kepler scored, Kirilloff to third on passed ball by Davis.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML MIN +100 / PIT -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +2 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +4 Elo | PIT 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 13th of 3017–18 | Road vs home | 16–1614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–36 | 32–30 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 8–17 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 24–13 |
| Overs–unders | 27–37 | 34–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–3 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.