Minnesota Twins at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-4
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Rowdy TellezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taylor singled to center, Tellez scored, Grandal to third.0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 8Tellez singled to left, Cruz scored and Hayes scored.0–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 7Tellez homered to center (403 feet).0–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIN -125 / PIT +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- PIT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.9 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +10 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +12 Elo | MIN 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 12th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 15–1617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–35 | 31–30 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–23 | 8–17 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders | 27–36 | 34–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–2 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.