Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz singled to left, Tovar scored.1–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 6Burleson grounded into fielder's choice to first, Pagés scored on throwing error by shortstop Tovar, Winn out at second.0–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Winn singled to left, Donovan scored and Pagés scored, Winn to second.0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Burleson homered to right center (399 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Pagés hit sacrifice fly to center, Carlson scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- STL 61%
- ML COL +145 / STL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- STL: Elo 57.1%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- STL -154
- COL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.8 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −9 | COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +50 Elo | STL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 29th of 3010–24 | Road vs home | 14–1414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–29 | 29–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 9–17 |
| Underdog | 31–27 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 35–26 | 28–32–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–4 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.